Equity Idea: An Undervalued AI Computing Infrastructure Play 被低估的AI算力基建新贵
——从债务出清到百亿智算订单，我们观察到粤港湾控股（01396.HK）正在完成蜕变。
核心观点: 该公司AI资产端兑现节奏明确，结构出清后会进入“订单驱动 + 盈利释放”阶段，而市场还没有对此展开充分定价。
粤港湾控股在2025年10月23日公告收购天顿数据之后，完成了从地产模式向稀缺资产型AI算力基础设施平台的实质性转型。公司2025年的一系列资本动作不仅帮助公司出清地产负债链条、压缩资产负债表，还同时导入一个具备百亿级在手订单、快速交付能力和技术闭环平台能力的AI智算资产。市场此前对其“转型弹性”存在观望，而我们认为交易完成后将快速进入业绩兑现阶段，催化也将在至少三个层面持续体现：订单兑现节奏、交付能力验证和财务结构重构。
2025年公司股价已从底部大幅反弹，但我们认为目前的市场定价仍在主要反映地产债务出清和资产注入的叙事，对天顿数据的资产质量和成长潜力的重估还在早期。而若综合考虑资产稀缺性、流动性溢价调整和发展弹性，估值重估的空间仍然较大。
我们认为目前公司具备的核心优势至少包括：
组网能力领先、订单落地节奏快、大模型客户支出刚性强，营收增长具备强可视性；
国内市场最纯粹的AIDC标的，稀缺性显著；
重组完成后资产结构优化，财务负担出清，为估值重估提供基础。
具体分析请参见我们的独立报告：
👉 中文版：PAS_01396HK_HKGBA_EquityIdea_20260309_CN.pdf
免责声明：本报告由Pacific Alpha Securities（太明证券投资有限公司，香港证监会中央编号：BHR807）发布，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。阁下下载本报告即表示阁下已阅读并同意我们的完整免责声明。
研究联络：research@pachk.com
——From debt resolution to RMB 10 billion+ in smart computing orders — we see GD-HKGBA Holdings (01396.HK) completing a fundamental transformation.
Key Thesis: The company's AI asset monetization trajectory is well-defined. Following the completion of structural deleveraging, it is poised to enter an "order-driven + earnings release" phase — a transition the market has yet to fully price in.
Following the announced acquisition of Tiandun Data on 23 October 2025, GBA Holdings has completed a substantive transformation from a legacy real estate model to a scarce AI computing infrastructure platform. The company's series of capital actions in 2025 have not only unwound its property-related liabilities and deleveraged the balance sheet, but also introduced an AI smart computing asset base with over RMB 10 billion in contracted orders, rapid deployment capability, and a closed-loop technology platform. While the market had previously adopted a wait-and-see stance on the company's "transformation optionality," we believe the completion of these transactions will trigger a swift entry into an earnings delivery phase, with catalysts emerging across at least three dimensions: order fulfillment cadence, delivery capability validation, and financial restructuring.
The company's share price has rebounded significantly from its lows in 2025. However, we believe current market pricing still largely reflects the narratives of property debt resolution and asset injection. The reassessment of Tiandun Data's asset quality and growth potential remains in its early stages. When factoring in asset scarcity, liquidity premium adjustments, and growth optionality, there is still considerable room for valuation re-rating.
We believe the company's core strengths include:
Leading network deployment capability, rapid order-to-delivery execution, and sticky demand from large model clients, providing high revenue growth visibility
The purest AIDC play in the domestic market, with notable scarcity value
Post-restructuring balance sheet cleanup, laying the foundation for valuation re-rating
For detailed analysis, please refer to our independent report:
👉 English Ver.: PAS_01396HK_HKGBA_EquityIdea_20260309_EN.pdf
Disclaimer: This material is published by Pacific Alpha Securities Limited (SFC CE No.: BHR807). It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. By downloading this report, you acknowledge that you have read and agreed to our Full Disclaimer.
Research Contact: research@pachk.com
